Royal Ascot's most unlikely winners

   

Royal Ascot has a tendency to expose horses. Five days, the sharpest fields in flat racing, and a track that punishes anything less than a proper performance. Most long shots are long shots for a reason, which is why those putting together their ante-post selections for Royal Ascot tend to gravitate toward the familiar names at the top of the market. But every so often, a horse arrives at the meeting carrying no real expectation and leaves having rewritten their own story.

With Royal Ascot 2026 running from 16 to 20 June and a fresh set of contenders heading to Berkshire, it's worth looking back at some of the horses who showed what the meeting can do to a reputation when everything falls right.

 

Accidental Agent (2018 Queen Anne Stakes)

Few horses at a Group 1 level have looked less ready before a race than Accidental Agent looked before the 2018 Queen Anne Stakes. Sweating visibly in the parade ring and sent off at 33/1, Eve Johnson Houghton's five-year-old looked an unlikely candidate. He won by half a length, flying home from the back of the field under Charles Bishop. The performance came from nowhere and went against everything the betting suggested. Accidental Agent never reached those heights again, but the day itself was undeniable.

 

Flashmans Papers (2008 Windsor Castle Stakes)

Trainer John Best had never saddled a Royal Ascot winner when he entered Flashmans Papers in the Windsor Castle Stakes. The horse went off at 100/1 and was behind even his own stablemates in the market. Best had given him a break to strengthen, hoping the additional distance of five furlongs would suit him better than the minimum trips where his form had faded. It did. Flashmans Papers came from behind in the final two furlongs to win by half a length. At triple-figure odds, it remains one of the most unlikely group race results the meeting has produced.

 

Mostahdaf (2023 Prince of Wales's Stakes)

Mostahdaf arrived at the 2023 Prince of Wales's Stakes as a 10/1 outsider in a field that included that year's Irish Champion Stakes winner Luxembourg. John and Thady Gosden's five-year-old had been placed in Group 3 company and had finished fourth in the Dubai Sheema Classic on his previous start. Under Jim Crowley, he settled at the back of the six-runner field before running on powerfully to beat Luxembourg by four lengths. The margin told a clearer story than the odds had suggested. Mostahdaf went on to defend the title in 2024 and became one of the most recognisable middle-distance horses in training.

 

Docklands (2025 Queen Anne Stakes)

Last year's opener produced one of the more recent examples. Docklands, a five-year-old trained by Harry Eustace and ridden by Mark Zahra, started at 13/1 in a field headed by Rosallion, the 9/5 favourite who had won the St James's Palace Stakes at the previous year's meeting. Zahra dropped his whip inside the final furlong, but it made no difference. Docklands had finished second in this race 12 months earlier and went one better this time, holding on by a nose. For a horse with Ascot form, the price was always arguably on the generous side.

 

Khaadem (2022 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes)

Perhaps the most extreme result of recent years. Khaadem started at 80/1 for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes and won by a length and a half under Oisin Murphy. Trained by Charlie Hills, he had won the race two years earlier but had given little sign heading into the 2021 renewal that he was about to run a career-best. Bookmakers reported significant losses on the day. For those who had backed him, the return was substantial. For everyone else, it was the kind of result that reminds you how much can go undetected in a large field on a big day.

 

2026 Cheltenham Festival

 The 2026 Cheltenham Festival took place between Tuesday, March 10 and Friday, March 13 and took its customary form, with 28 races staged over the four days. All five feature races of the week went the way of Irish-trained horses, Willie Mullins winning the Champion Hurdle, Queen Mother Champion Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup with Lossiemouth, Il Etait Temps and Gaelic Warrior, respectively, Joseph Patrick O'Brien the Stayers' Hurdle with Home By The Lee and Henry De Bromhead the Ryanair Chase with Heart Wood. Overall, though, the Prestbury Cup went down to the wire, with Ireland eventually winning 15-13 after Air Of Entitlement, another trained by De Bromhead, took the closing Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle under Patrick O'Brien.

All told, six outright or joint-favourites won at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival but, even so, the average starting price of all 28 winners was the highest it has been for a decade, at 14/1. Martator, trained by Venetia Williams and ridden by Charlie Deutsch, produced the biggest shock of the week when winning the Grand Annual Chase at 66/1 on Ladies' Day, but was followed by White Noise (40/1) in the Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle and Home By The Lee (33/1) in the Stayers' Hurdle, both on St. Patrick's Thursday, and Apolon De Charnie (50/1) in the opening Triumph Hurdle on Gold Cup Day.

Rather more predictably, Willie Mullins won the leading trainer award for the eighth year running and the thirteenth time in all, with eight winners, and his stable jockey, Paul Townend, won the leading jockey award for the fifth year running and the sixth time in all, with four winners. Aside from their three feature race winners, the pair also combined for King Rasko Grey in the Turners Novices' Hurdle, while Mullins also saddled Kargese, ridden by his nephew, Danny, in the Arkle Challenge Trophy, Kitzbuhel, ridden by Harry Cobden, in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase, the aforementioned Apolon De Charnie, ridden by his son Patrick, and Dino Blue, ridden by Mark Walsh, in the Liberthine Mares' Chase. His career tally currently stands at an eye-watering 121 Cheltenham Festival winners.

Cheltenham Festival 2025

 Since the inception of the Prestbury Cup – that is, the official competition between British- and Irish-trained horses at the Cheltenam Festival – in 2014, the closest the home team have come to winning was a 14-14 draw in 2019. Unsurprisingly, Ireland was long odds-on to win again in 2025 and did so in style, by 20-8, the biggest winning margin since the infamous 23-5 'greenwash' in 2021. The results on the fourth and final day, Gold Cup Day, made particularly grim reading for British supporters, with Willie Mullins winning the first four races and Gavin Cromwell, Sam Curling and Gordon Elliott chipping in with a winner apiece for an Irish clean sweep of all seven races on the card.

To be fair to Cromwell, who also won the Cross Country Chase with Stumptown the previous day, "chipping in" hardly does justice to his achievement in winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup with Inothewayurthinkin, owned by J.P. McManus and ridden by Mark Walsh. Beforehand, most of the hype revolved around Galopin Des Champs, trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Paul Townend, who was attempting to become the first horse since Best Mate, in 2004, to win the 'Blue Riband' event three years running. Still only a nine-year-old, Galopin Des Champs was sent off at odds-on to complete the hat-trick, but when push came to shove he had no answer to his younger rival, who readily drew clear in the closing stages to win by six lengths.

Mullins, though, enjoyed an exemplary week, even by his standards. He saddled 10 winners over the four days, including Fact To File, ridden by Mark Walsh, in the Ryanor Chase, to equal his own record, set in 2022, and become leading trainer for the seventh year running. His stable jockey, Paul Townend, with four winners, just edged out Walsh on countback to become the leading jockey for the fifth time in six years.

The feature race on day one, the Champion Hurdle, was a highly eventful affair. Odds-on favourite Constitution Hill fell at the fourth-last flight and the 2024 winner, State Man, fell when five lengths ahead at the final flight. The eventual winner was 25/1 chance Golden Ace, trained by Jeremy Scott and ridden by Lorcan Williams.

Cheltenham Festival 2024

 The 2024 Cheltenham Festival was notable for the centenary of the 'Blue Riband' event, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, which first won, as a steeplechase, by Red Splash, trained by Fred Withington, in 1924. To the surprise of no-one, though, the 2024 renewal went to the defending champion, Galopin Des Champs, trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Paul Townend. The eight-year-old provided the pair with their fourth Cheltenham Gold Cup in six years, enabling Townend to equal the record set by the late Pat Taaffe – best known as the jockey of the legendary Arkle – on Fort Leney in 1968.

Aside from the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Mullins and Townend also won the Champion Hurdle with State Man. In the absence of defending champion Constitution Hill, sidelined with a severe respiratory infection, the 2023 runner-up was sent off at odds of 2/5 to land the two-mile hurdling championship and did so with a minimum of fuss, keeping on well on the run-in to beat his chief market rival, Irish Point, by a length and a quarter.

Elsewhere, the Queen Mother Chase and the Stayers' Hurdle went to horses trained in Ireland, but Warwickshire trainer Dan Skelton struck a blow for the home team when winning the Ryanair Chase with Protektorat, ridden by his brother, Harry. In fact, Skelton also saddled Langer Dan to win the Coral Cup, Unexpected Party to win the Grand Annual Chase and Grey Dawning to win the Turners' Novices' Chase. The leading trainer title, though, went to Willie Mullins, with nine winners, and the leading jockey title to Paul Townend, with six. Mullins also reached the milestone of 100 Cheltenham winners when Jasmin De Vaux, ridden by his son, Patrick, won the Champion Bumper.

Keen-eyed students may have noticed that, while the Cheltenham Festival typically features 28 races, the final score in the 2025 Prestbury Cup was 18-9 in favour of Irish-trained horses. All the winners came for Britain and Ireland, but the Cross Country Chase, scheduled as the fourth race on day two, a.k.a. 'Style Wednesday', was cancelled, due to waterlogging, after over four inches of rain fell on the course the previous day.

Cheltenham Festival 2023

 The 2023 Cheltenham Festival represented what had become business as usual for Irish-trained runners, with the visitors winning the Prestbury Cup 18-10, exactly the same scoreline as in 2022. Willie Mullins, with six winners, including Energumene in the Queen Mother Champion Chase and Galopin Des Champs in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, was leading trainer for the fifth year running and his stable jockey, Paul Townend, with five winners, was leading jockey for the second year running.

Galopin Des Champs had looked a desperately unlucky loser when falling at the final fence in the Turner Novices' Chase in 2022, when holding an unassailable 12-length lead, but justified favouritism in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in taking style, coming home seven lengths ahead of his nearest pursuer, Bravemansgame.

The connections of Honeysuckle, who won the Champion Hurdle in both 2021 and 2022, decluned a hat-trick in the two-mile hurdling championship and ran the mare, by then a nine-year-old, in the Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle over half a mile further. Honeysuckle had won that race on her Cheltenham Festival debut back in 2020 and, what proved to be a fitting swansong, did so again under regular jockey Rachael Blackmore.

In the absence of Honeysuckle, Constitution Hill – the impressive winner of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival and 5-5 under Rules at that stage – appeared to have a relatively straightforward task in the Champion Hurdle, as reflected by his prohibitive 4/11 starting price. He never gave his supporters and anxious moment, travelling strongly throughout, crusing into the lead at the third-last flight and drawing clear in the closing stages for another impressive, 9-length win from his only serious market rival, State Man.

The other 'feature' races, that is, the Ryanair Chase and the Stayers' Hurdle, both went the way of Irish-trained horses. Envoi Allen, trained by Henry de Bromhead and ridden by Rachael Blackmore, kept on well to oust even-money favourite in the former, while Sire Du Berlais, trained by Gordon Elliott and ridden by Mark Walsh, rediscovered his best form to spring a 33/1 surprise in the latter.